Russia’s Sub-Threshold warfare against the Baltic States in 2022-2026

Baltic Initiative contributes to a series of publications by the Sahaidachnyi Security Center on Russia’s sub-threshold warfare against Europe. In our first brief, we focus on sub-threshold warfare against the Baltic States since 2022.

The trajectory of sub-threshold attacks in the Baltic States mirrors the broader evolution of Russia’s sub-threshold warfare against Europe. The number and frequency of incidents have kept rising markedly since 2022. These include airspace and maritime incidents, sabotage, cyber operations, GNSS interference, and increasingly intensive air-policing incidents. Since March 2025, incidents that can be traced through open sources have become more frequent and have ocurred at least once a month.

The brief outlines the main trajectory and emerging trends of Russia’s hybrid war against the Baltic States. The analysis in the brief is based on the Everywhere War Tracker (https://sahasec.org/tracker/), an OSINT-based monitoring and documented tool documenting officially attributed ans suspected sub-threshold activity by Russia against Europe since 2022.